Up Or Down? What Will Happen To Your Real Estate Investment Market In 2010


There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the housing market. Is it going up? Down? A lot of people are making predictions, but they tend to look nationwide or citywide. But what about your specific farm area? Here is the best way to determine what YOUR housing market is going to do in 2010.

Many different factors are responsible for whether prices rise or fall in a specific market. Markets all react to their own unique conditions. Different neighborhoods and even different types of properties will react to the circumstances that affect them specifically.

You should look at the trends within a 1 mile radius from the center of your area in order to make sure you are looking specifically at your market. You also want to look at homes within 10% of the size of the median home and lot that you are interested in buying and selling.

Home prices are for the most part determined by the months of housing inventory available. Price changes tend to lag behind changes in inventory by about 6-10 months. So if housing inventory increases, you will see a decrease in prices about 6-10 months later. If the inventory decreases, prices will then rise about 6-10 months later. Real estate investors are able to use short sales to offer deeply discounted prices when they sell houses before the rest of the homes in an area catch up.

If there are 8 months or more of inventory, prices will fall; if there are 2-3 months of inventory, prices rise. Use this as a rule of thumb in your local market in 2010.

In many areas the first round of the First Time Homebuyer credit could not quench the high demand for starter homes. If your are is one of them, the feeding frenzy for lower end homes could continue. Since the credit was expanded to all buyers, sales and prices may be boosted because there will be a larger supply of both homes and buyers available. The impact of the credit might not be that large, though. Only 6% of people who bought homes this last fall said that they did it because of the tax credit.

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The cost of ownership is another factor that directly drives up the price of homes. In 2010, the U.S. Treasury will play a very important role in determining whether the market will rise or fall. There was been little incentive shown by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2009, but it might be different in 2010. The Fed might experience pressure to raise interest rates in order to attract more buyers of U.S. debt. Even just a small increase in interest rates could drive potential buyers out of the market.

Higher property taxes or income taxes at the state and local level could drive potential buyers out of the market. Local and state governments might succumb to pressure to raise these rates in order to balance their budgets for 2011.

Last, but certainly not least, will be the impact of foreclosures on the housing market in many communities. I believe there will be spikes that occur in markets that heavily used the Option ARM for mortgages between 2004 and 2007 that are going to reset higher as interest rates push payments up. Communities still drowning in unemployment will also experience higher foreclosure levels.

These are just some of the factors that will affect your local market in 2010. Apply the ones that fit, as each market and micro-market will be different.

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